NonFarm Payrolls


Nonfarm Payrolls rise less than expected in January but upward revisions confirm tight conditions

US jobs report post-release checklist – February 7

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Negative US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 143,000 in January, following the 307,000 increase recorded in November and falling short of the market expectation of 170,000.
NFP Revisions Positive The change in total Nonfarm Payrolls for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from +256,000 to +307,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported.
Unemployment rate Positive The US Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4% in January from 4.1% in December.
Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral The Labor Force Participation Rate edged higher to 62.6% in January from 62.5%.
Average Hourly Earnings Positive Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, rose 4.1%, up from 3.9% in December.

 

US jobs report pre-release checklist – February 7

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls  PositiveNonfarm Payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, surpassing the market expectation of 160,000 and up from the 212,000 jobs created in November. 
Challenger Job Cuts  NegativeUS-based employers announced 49,795 job cuts in January, a noticeable increase from 38,792 cuts reported in December.
Initial Jobless Claims   PositiveThe four-week average of the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time declined to 212,500 in the week ending January 25. 
Continuing Jobless Claims   NeutralContinuing claims stood at 1.886 million in the week ending January 25, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level.
ISM Services PMI Positive
The headline ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8 in January from 54 in December. The Employment subindex, however, improved to 52.3 from 51.3, signaling that the service sector continued to add jobs in this period.
ISM Manufacturing PMI        PositiveThe headline ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January from 49.3, highlighting an expansion in the manufacturing sector’s business activity. The Employment subindex rose to 50.3 from 45.4.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index  NeutralThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 71.1 in January from 74 in December.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index  NegativeThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 104.1 in January from 109.5 in December. “Views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September,” the publication read. 
ADP Employment Report  PositivePrivate-sector employment rose by 183,000 in January, following the 176,000 increase reported in December and surpassing the market expectation of 150,000.
JOLTS Job Openings  NeutralJOLTS Job Openings stood at 7.6 million on the last business day of December. This reading came in below the market expectation of 8 million. Still, the data is backward looking because the upcoming NFP data is for January.

 

December US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


November US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


October US JOBS REPORT REVIEW




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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.