The leg may have been off the accelerator, but it is on it once again – September's Nonfarm Payrolls shocked to the upside with a whopping gain of 336,000. They provide enough fuel for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its rates higher for longer – and perhaps even a rate hike just after Halloween.
Impressive Nonfarm Payrolls growth in September confirms tight labor conditions
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 336,000 in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in much higher than the market expectation of 170,000. The 187,000 increase recorded in August also got revised higher to 227,000.
US jobs report post-release checklist – October 6
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation
|US employers added 336,000 payrolls in September, the highest increase since January and well above expectations of 170,000 jobs created.
|Net revisions from the previous two months, July and August, show that the US economy added 119,000 jobs more than previously estimated.
|The US Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Economists expected a slight decline to 3.7%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate
|The participation rate, a gauge of the active workforce, remained unchanged at 62.8%.
|Average Hourly Earnings
|Annual wage growth cooled further in September to 4.2% against expectations of a steady growth pace. On a monthly basis, earnings rose 0.2%, the same rate as in August and less than the 0.3% rise economists had expected.
SEPTEMBER US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the September jobs report on Friday, October 6. Expectations are for a 170,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the stronger-than-expected 187,000 increase recorded in August.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data for September should help clarify if the labor market is still tight, especially after a strong JOLTS report and softer private payrolls data, compelling the Fed to raise interest rates next month.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – October 6
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls
|US employers added 187,000 payrolls in August, below the key 200K mark, but more than the 170,000 expected and increasing from the 157,000 jobs created in July.
|Challenger Job Cuts
|Employers announced 47,457 job cuts in September, well down the 75,000 figure seen a month earlier but still above the around 30,000 cuts announced the same month a year earlier.
|Initial Jobless Claims
|The number of people filing to receive unemployment benefits for the first time has edged further down. The 4-week moving average until September 29 was at 208,750, signaling a strong labor market.
|Continuing Jobless Claims
|Overall claims fell slightly to 1.664 million in the week ending September 22, remaining near the low levels seen in the last month.
|ISM Services PMI
|The ISM Services PMI data for September suggested that the sector expanded at a slower pace. The Employment component continued to indicate job creation, but less so than in the previous month.
|ISM Manufacturing PMI
|The ISM Manufacturing PMI data for September pointed to a marginal contraction in factory activity, but the Employment component rebounded significantly, suggesting firms added more employees to their workforce.
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
|The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US edged down slightly to 68.1 in September from 69.5 in August. Still, confidence is up by 16% compared to the same month a year earlier.
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
|The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated to 103.0 in September from 108.7 in August. Still, consumers’ assessment of current labor market conditions was slightly more positive.
|ADP Employment Report
|ADP’s gauge of private-sector employment rose by 89,000 jobs in September, less than the 153,000 increase expected and down sharply from the 180,000 jobs added in August.
|JOLTS Job Openings
|Job openings in the US unexpectedly rebounded sharply to 9.61 million in August, in a sign of resilient labor demand and tight job market conditions.
AUGUST US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Some 40 million planes land safely every year – such soft events are not news, but when it is the world's largest economy rather than flights, it is big news for financial markets.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 187,000 in August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in higher than the market expectation of 170,000.
JULY US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
For the labor market, the narrative is straightforward – normality at last. For markets, it is somewhat more complicated. Nonfarm Payrolls failed to provide a straightforward narrative for investors, and not for the first time. The US Dollar is set to fight back after the initial blow.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 187,000 in July, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 200,000. June's increase of 209,000 got revised lower to 185,000.
JUNE US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
The US has gained 209,000 jobs, within expectations – but the US Dollar loses ground. Is it all a game of expectations? Not in this case, as the details matter.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose 209,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 225,000.
MAY US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Is the US economy experiencing a soft landing? According to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls, the job market is slowing down to a "Goldilocks level" – not too hot nor too cold. For markets, it means ongoing growth but with lower inflation and interest rates. For the US Dollar, it means the path of least resistance is down.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose 339,000 in May. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 190,000 by a wide margin. April's reading of 253,000 also got revised higher to 294,000.
APRIL US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
America's job market is on fire – I feel a deja-vu when writing that line, as that has been the outcome of Nonfarm Payrolls reports for over a year. The US gained 253,000 positions last month, smashing expectations of an increase of 179,000.
The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 253,000 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 179,000.