EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0500 amid light trading
EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on recent upside and oscillates in a narrow range below 1.0500 in European trading on Monday. However, the pair's downside remains cushioned by persistent US Dollar weakness and an upbeat mood. Focus shifts to central bank talks.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines from the 80 mark it touched on Friday but holds above 60, suggesting that EUR/USD remains bullish after correcting from overbought levels.
On the downside, 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first support before 1.0400 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0360 (200-period SMA).
Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) ahead of 1.0550 (static level) and 1.0600 (static level, beginning point of the downtrend).
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD trades in a relatively tight channel below 1.0500 to begin the new week. Financial markets in the US will remain closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday on Monday, limiting the volatility in the second half of the day.
The persistent selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar helped EUR/USD post strong gains in the previous week. Easing fears over an aggressive trade policy by US President Donald Trump helped the market mood improve and weighed on the USD. Ahead of the weekend, the data from the US showed that Retail Sales in the US declined by 0.9% on a monthly basis in January, not allowing the USD to stage a rebound.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases in the first half of the week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of its January policy meeting.
In the meantime, market participants will pay close attention to developments surrounding the Trump administration's trade policy with the EU.
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington on Monday to meet with US counterparts to discuss US tariffs.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Optimism and central banks’ imbalances open the door for additional gains Premium
The EUR/USD pair gapped lower for a second consecutive week, falling to 1.0276 on Monday, yet managed to change course mid-week, finishing it at around 1.0500 and near fresh two-week highs.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0500 amid light trading
EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on recent upside and oscillates in a narrow range below 1.0500 in European trading on Monday. However, the pair's downside remains cushioned by persistent US Dollar weakness and an upbeat mood. Focus shifts to central bank talks.
GBP/USD ranges near 1.2600 as US Dollar steadies
GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.2600 in the early European session on Monday. The pair stays support amid a subdued US Dollar price action following Friday's disappoining US Retail Sales data. Thin trading is likely to extend as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day.
USD/JPY off lows but heavy near 151.50 amid upbeat Japan's Q4 GDP
The Japanese Yen sticks to its strong intraday gains in the wake of a strong domestic Gross Domestic Product print, which reaffirmed bets that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates further.
Gold: Bulls have the upper hand near $2,900 amid trade war fears and weaker USD
Gold regained positive traction on Monday amid sustained USD weakness. Concerns about Trump’s tariffs further benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. The fundamental and technical setup underpin prospects for additional gains.
WTI holds steady above $70.50, eyes on Russia-Ukraine peace deal
West Texas Intermediate Oil price rebounds from losses in the previous session, trading around $70.60 per barrel during Monday’s Asian hours. However, crude Oil prices faced headwinds as optimism surrounding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine eased supply concerns.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.
The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.