The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery gains and resumed its decline to end the week in the red at around 1.0520. The pair bottomed at 1.0447 in early October and aimed to rebound from the level, but the latest developments ended up benefiting once again the US Dollar.
The Pound Sterling snapped its recovery against the United States Dollar (USD), as GBP/USD reversed sharply from a three-week high near 1.2350. It remains to be seen if the GBP/USD pair can resume its recent uptrend ahead of the key United Kingdom’s (UK) employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in the week ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is at a critical juncture in the weekly time frame, where bulls and bears are battling for control. However, a multi-time-frame analysis shows that BTC is bullish daily and is likely to rally higher.
The Dollar traded on the back foot for the better half of this week due to dovish remarks by Fed officials who suggested that the surge in Treasury yields since they last met has done the work for them, implying that another hike before the end of the year may not be needed.
Gold capitalized on safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions and gathered bullish momentum to start the week. As US Treasury bond yields turned south on dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, XAU/USD extended its rally and snapped a two-week losing streak. Next week’s economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases that could impact the pair’s action in a noticeable way.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.