EURUSD Forecast and News
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0500, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD extended its daily decline toward 1.0500 in the second half of the American session, pressured by the souring market mood. Despite the bullish action seen earlier in the week, the pair remains on track to register weekly losses.
Latest EUR News
Technical Overview
EUR/USD dropped below 1.0570 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below 50, reflecting a bearish tilt in the short-term bias.
In case EUR/USD rises above 1.0570 and starts using that level as support, the pair could gather bullish momentum and target 1.0600 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0640-1.0650 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).
On the downside, supports are located at 1.0500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0450 (end-point of the latest downtrend) if 1.0570 stays intact.
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD stabilized at around 1.0550 early Friday after posting large losses on Thursday. The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum but buyers could show interest if the pair manages to flip 1.0570 into support.
The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength forced EUR/USD to turn south in the American session on Thursday following the latest inflation figures.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose 3.7% on a yearly basis in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The annual Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged lower to 4.1% from 4.3% as forecast. Assessing the underlying details of the report, "the Fed's 'supercore' (core services excluding home rent component) jumped 0.6% month-over-month, bringing the most recent three month annualized growth rate to 4.8% from 2.2% in August," said Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
Early Friday, US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day. In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, the risk perception could impact the USD's valuation and drive EUR/USD's action ahead of the weekend.
A bullish opening in Wall Street could make it difficult for the USD to find demand. On the other hand, EUR/USD could turn south in case investors continue to price in a stronger probability of one more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EURUSD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the euro-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Bears return with a vengeance Premium
The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery gains and resumed its decline to end the week in the red at around 1.0520. The pair bottomed at 1.0447 in early October and aimed to rebound from the level, but the latest developments ended up benefiting once again the US Dollar.
Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0500, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD extended its daily decline toward 1.0500 in the second half of the American session, pressured by the souring market mood. Despite the bullish action seen earlier in the week, the pair remains on track to register weekly losses.
GBP/USD falls below 1.2150 as USD rebounds
Following an earlier recovery attempt, GBP/USD turned south and declined below 1.2100 in the second half of the day on Friday. The negative shift seen in risk mood amid rising geopolitical tensions helps the US Dollar outperform its rivals and hurts the pair.
USD/JPY consolidates near 149.70 ahead of the US Consumer Sentiment
USD/JPY snaps the recent winning streak ahead of US data. A slew of solid US data could underpin the US Dollar. S&P Global anticipates that Japan could see upward interest rates trajectory, beginning in 2024.
Gold advances to fresh multi-week highs above $1,920
Gold extended its daily rally and climbed above $1,920 for the first time in over two weeks on Friday. Escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of the weekend weigh on T-bond yields and provide a boost to XAU/USD, which remains on track to gain nearly 5% this week.
Oil faces headwinds over demand fall despite US sanctions on Russian crude
Oil (WTI) trades broadly steady at $83 after a surprise buildup in US Oil stockpiles. The US Dollar rallied Thursday on the back of an unexpected pickup on food and energy inflation. Oil is expected to extend losses as demand is expected to weaken further.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EURUSD Yearly forecast
How could EURUSD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2023 EURUSD forecast!
EURUSD FORECAST 2023
In the EURUSD 2023 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, expects the EUR/USD long-term corrective advance will likely continue in the first quarter of 2023. By the end of the year 2022, the average outlook for the pair was 1.0538. Read more details about the forecast.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2022, the maximum level for the EURUSD (Euro US Dollar) was 1.1455 (on 06/02/22), and the minimum, 0.9589 (on 27/09/22).
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2023 FOR EURUSD
Heading into 2023, there is uncertainty over central banks succeeding in guiding economies into a soft landing. That is, controlling inflation without triggering recessions. As said, price pressures are still too high, with inflation running over three times faster than tolerable. The European energy crisis could easily turn into a global one next winter, affecting both Euro and US Dollar. The worldwide economic growth is expected to keep slowing, which could also be a decisive key driver for the pair during the 2023.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EURUSD
The EURUSD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EURUSD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EURUSD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.