EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD struggles to build on previous week's gains, stays below 1.0500
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.0500 on Monday. The cautious market mood supports the US Dollar and limits the pair's upside, while trading action remains subdued, with US markets remaining closed on Presidents' Day.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is pretty much flat on a daily basis, trading inside a limited 30-pip range. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows the pair holds well above its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which anyway has lost its upward strength and hovers around 1.0400. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, maintains its firmly bearish slope far above the current level, suggesting longer-term sellers are still present. Finally, technical indicators show contradictory directional strength yet remain within positive levels, limiting the bearish potential in the foreseeable sessions.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of another leg south has increased. Technical indicators retreated from overbought levels, and remain within positive levels, yet the Momentum indicator heads firmly south. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, in the meantime, turned flat at around 59. Finally, the EUR/USD pair develops well above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 SMA providing dynamic support at around 1.0440. The USD may find room to recover some ground, yet in the wider perspective the risk skews to the downside.
Support levels: 1.0440 1.0400 1.0360
Resistance levels: 1.0515 1.0550 1.0590
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair trades just short of the 1.0500 threshold on Monday, unable to extend its recent rally yet holding ground amid persistent broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The pair hit 1.0514 on Friday, shedding a few pips ahead of the weekly close.
European data fell short of impressing, keeping Euro (EUR) gains limited. The European Union (EU) Trade Balance posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €14.6 billion in December, improving from the €13.3 billion posted in November.
Meanwhile, Asian and European equities are giving little clues, as most indexes trade in the green, albeit with limited movements amid the poor performance of the tech sector.
Markets’ limited activity is being exacerbated by a holiday in the United States (US) as the country celebrates President’s Day, with stocks’ and bonds’ markets closed until Tuesday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Optimism and central banks’ imbalances open the door for additional gains Premium
The EUR/USD pair gapped lower for a second consecutive week, falling to 1.0276 on Monday, yet managed to change course mid-week, finishing it at around 1.0500 and near fresh two-week highs.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
EUR/USD Bearish Themes
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD struggles to build on previous week's gains, stays below 1.0500
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.0500 on Monday. The cautious market mood supports the US Dollar and limits the pair's upside, while trading action remains subdued, with US markets remaining closed on Presidents' Day.
GBP/USD ranges near 1.2600 as US Dollar steadies
GBP/USD fluctuates in a tight channel near 1.2600 in the second half of the day on Monday. Trading volumes are likely to remain thin as financial markets in the US enjoy a log weekend in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday.
USD/JPY slides to near 151.50 as Japanese Yen strengthens on robust GDP growth
USD/JPY falls sharply to near 151.40 as Yen performs strongly across the board on upbeat Q4 Japan GDP data. Flash Q4 Japan’s GDP data showed that the economy expanded by 0.7%. A delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan and poor Retail Sales data would keep the US Dollar on the backfoot.
Gold clings to modest daily gains near $2,900
Gold regains its traction and trades in positive territory near $2,900 following Friday's sharp decline. Although financial markets in the US remain closed on Monday, investors will scrutinize political headlines and comments from Fed officials.
WTI trades cautiously above $70 as investors await Russia-Ukraine peace talks
WTI is cautiously steady above $70.00 as investors stare at the Trump-Putin meeting. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine truce would be negative for the Oil price. OPEC will likely delay its planned monthly supply increase.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.
The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.