Cointelegraph Team
Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC $27,103) broke lower on Oct. 11 as $27,000 saw its first real test since the start of the month.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price battles for support after daily "death cross"
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked increasing overnight BTC price weakness, including a trip to $26,978 on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin thus came full circle for October, erasing all of the gains seen after the September monthly close.
Analyzing intraday performance, popular trader Skew noted the interplay between two moving averages (MAs), along with a so-called “death cross.”
In March, he noted the 100-day MA crossed above the 200-day counterpart — a “golden cross” event that traditionally marks upside to come.
“Here we technically just had the death cross, so if we head lower kinda leaning towards a squeeze eventually to test 200D MA again before trending,” part of X commentary read.
The daily chart shows the 200-day MA acting as stiff resistance for BTC/USD despite its early “Uptober” gains. Since the death cross confirmed on Oct. 9, the pair has lost almost $1,000, or 3.4%.
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 100, 200 MA. Source: TradingView
On shorter timeframes, Skew highlighted $27,300 and $26,800 as key levels.
“Bears have price control here with loss of 4H EMA trend, if price recovers above $27.3K I will see that as strength,” he wrote.
More importantly any recovery needs to be spot driven from here imo, wont rule out a squeeze. Below $26.8K this will look weak to me.
$BTC 4H
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 11, 2023
Bears have price control here with loss of 4H EMA trend
if price recovers above $27.3K I will see that as strength
More importantly any recovery needs to be spot driven from here imo, wont rule out a squeeze.
Below $26.8K this will look weak to me https://t.co/ymFr8bYtyf pic.twitter.com/HvxZnN4SrI
Fellow trader Crypto Tony revealed that he was already short BTC, having triggered the change as Bitcoin dropped below $27,200.
$BTC / $USD - Update
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) October 11, 2023
Lost the support zone overnight, so as per the plan i will be shorting this down while below the $27,200 level pic.twitter.com/dorNjbXObD
Popular trader Jelle meanwhile agreed that either a recovery or breakdown would result from current levels at $27,000, noting that “the untapped liquidity has been taken out.”
“Would have expected a more immediate buyback — this suggests the market wants to traverse lower,” part of his latest commentary added.
Will Bitcoin print pre-halving "macro low?"
Current BTC price behavior further fueled conservative views of how Bitcoin might develop in the months to come.
Among those maintaining significantly lower levels — including a return to $20,000 — as a possibility was popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
After eyeing a potential long-term breakdown from the July highs, Rekt Capital reiterated that the BTC/USD weekly chart so far lacked a macro higher low versus late-2022.
An accompanying chart gave a target for this at around $20,000 as part of the build-up to Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving event in April 2024.
Should a macro low hit, Bitcoin would be copying behavior from last cycle’s pre-halving year, 2019, it showed.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
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