Mark O’Donnell
Blackbull Markets Limited
Did the BoJ secretly intervene in USD/JPY on Tuesday? And is there more to come? For now, Bank of Japan officials have avoided explicitly stating whether they had stepped into the market to strengthen the yen. After the USD/JPY crossed 150.000 (its weakest levels in a year), a huge candle appeared on Tuesday touching as low as 147.300 before closing at 149.100.
The Bank of Japan´s data apparently showed that it did not intervene (its current account balance was within the estimated range). So, if it wasn’t a BoJ intervention, what was it? A self-fulfilling prophecy? Maybe both? It’s all a bit murky. Even former BOJ official Hideo Kumano said that Tuesday´s move showed all the hallmarks of intervention.
Of course, if it was the BoJ, they would be willing to do it again if needed as they have stated many times (although the officials like to phrase it as combating excess volatility rather than combatting a weakening yen). Tuesday’s intervention could have just been a warning shot to those looking to bet against the yen, with more drastic action from the BoJ locked and loaded.
The BoJ last officially intervened in the currency markets in September and October last year, when the USD/JPY hit a 32-year low of 151.940. At that time, intervention was able to push the pair down to 146.000. Which begs the question; what could be some possible targets this year? Well, the aforementioned wick’s low of 147.300 is an obvious target, with 147.000 just below it. But, like the wider context, targets become a little murkier after these levels. Last year´s pivot points at 145.700 and 145.500 might come into play.
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