Invesco Galaxy updates its Spot Bitcoin ETF S-1 after Ark Invest, analysts say more to come

• Invest Galaxy has updated its spot Bitcoin ETF S-1 a day after Ark Invest did the same.
• It comes only weeks after the US SEC emails issuers with comments and questions regarding their forms S-1
• ETF specialist Eric Balchunas expects the rest of the potential issuers to add their updates soon as well.

Meanwhile, Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised their Spot BTC ETF approval odds from 75% to 90% by January 10.

Invesco Galaxy investment firm has updated its Spot Bitcoin Exchange-traded fund (ETF), following on the heels of Cathie Woods’ Ark Invest yesterday. It comes weeks after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent emails to the potential issuers, questioning their S-1 forms.

Also Read: Ark Invest updates Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus; ETF specialist anticipates more delays

Invesco Galaxy updates Spot BTC filing

Invesco Galaxy has updated its Spot BTC ETF S-1 in an attempt to answer probably all the questions the US SEC had following the firm’s latest submission.

With the expectation that the other issuers will issue updates as well, the wait continues for the US SEC to give a decision on the long pile of filings on its desk. Nevertheless, it all points to an ongoing conversation between the commission and the issuers, thereby keeping hope alive.

For the case of Ark Invest, Bloomberg analysts and ETF specialists Balchunas and James Seyffart indicated that the adjustments to the Spot BTC ETF S-1 form were not that major, but expansive, comprising language, further context,  and additional risk closures. The changes amounted to around five pages of text, which points to the firm receiving a lot of feedback.

It is likely that Invesco Galaxy got the same deal. Meanwhile, with the engagement still going on, the Bloomberg analysts have raised their Spot BTC ETF approval odds from the 75% expectation indicated during late August to 90% by January 10.

The 75% target was founded upon the Grayscale win after a longstanding legal battle with the US SEC. This came as the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled in favor of Grayscale, with the regulatory body being sued for denying the request to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF.

Fast forward almost two months, the SEC has failed to appeal the ruling, increasing the odds for the first Spot Bitcoin ETF coming into the market.

Among other reasons, the delayed decisions come on the back of the financial regulator’s belief that such ETFs are prone to price manipulation. This is because of the lack of a regulating authority similar to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for Futures Bitcoin ETFs.

Because the spot and futures markets for bitcoin are highly related, it stands to reason that manipulation in either market will affect the price of bitcoin futures. The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products.

This argument, however, has been rejected by the court in the past, urging the SEC to review Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF application.

With the SEC not appealing the court’s decision, considering the elapsing time, dialogue could begin the week starting October 16 between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week, according to Seyffart.

Contrary to expectation, the commission’s failure to appeal has not provided the obvious win, as had been anticipated, with Bitcoin (BTC) price still stuck below the $28,000 level.